The U.S. labor market continues to reflect a structural cooling in the manufacturing and information sectors, but the resilience of the service industry is still supporting overall economic growth. The cyclical mismatch between different sectors is evident. The unemployment rate is a more valuable indicator to watch than non-farm payrolls. If it further rises, it may indicate a cyclical recession. Non-farm payroll data is not a stable indicator and usually fluctuates between positive and negative. In contrast, the unemployment rate is more stable. Empirically, if the unemployment rate rises for three consecutive months, it enters an upward trend. Therefore, currently, the unemployment rate is more valuable to observe than non-farm payrolls. The unemployment rate rebounded 0.3 percentage points this month, marking the first time since the optimization of the U.S. epidemic prevention policy last year. This may indicate that after a year of substantial interest rate hikes and service industry recovery, various positive factors are beginning to weaken. If this indicator continues to rise in June and July, it may indicate that the U.S. is entering a cyclical recession, but careful observation is still needed.